Foreign Exchange Markets Stagnant Before Non-Farms, ECB - World First’s Currency Exchange Morning Update - 2nd July 2009

Strong PMI figures from around the globe served to increase the belief that the recovery is coming soon with equity markets and other risky assets getting a good start to the 3rd quarter.
PMI releases in China, Sweden and UK were all better than expected and alongside decent retail sales figures from Germany and strong numbers in the Australian equivalent USD was on the back foot for most of the day.
The US was not helped by data from its own backyard as ADP employment change showed that 100k more jobs were lost in the month of June than expected. That holds a Damocles-esque sword over Non-Farm Payrolls due at 13.30 today with expectations varying from falls of 345k to 495k. Nobody knows where this is going and and we expect markets to be fairly stagnant before hand.
indeed, 13.30 will be a time of great volatility as the European Central Bank’s post decision press conference will start at the same time. As far as the actual decision goes we are with the consensus of a hold in interest rates and possible further EUR strength as the details of the €442 bln of loans made to European banks last week are picked over and the mark looks forward to the covered bond purchase plan.
Other data published today includes Construction PMI from the UK which we hope will push higher and bolster sterling; that’s due at 09.30. European Unemployment is the final major piece of data which we believe will increase to close to 10% unemployment across the channel.

World First’s Twitter page is up and running and we will be live ‘tweeting’ the impact of all these data releases and how they affect the markets. Click below for up-to-date news on all things currency. The address is http://twitter.com/World_First

World First’s Currency Exchange Morning Update - 1st July 2009

All this and more is available on our video blog at http://uk.youtube.com/user/WorldFirstJC
As we predicted yesterday the GBP rally was over before it really began as GDP figures for the UK were very disappointing.
Growth in the UK in the 1st quarter fell by -2.4% against a consensus view of -1.9% as the ONS affirmed the belief that the UK has been in recession for over a year now. The quarterly fall of 2.4% was the largest decline since 1951; a year which saw Elvis Presley drafted into the US army, the first motorway opened outside of Preston and instant noodles in British shops for the first time. Technical analysts will look at the move on sterling as a ‘false break’ and will look for a decline from here in the value of the pound.
Risky assets were not helped by the news that US consumer confidence was also worse than expected which acted as a plague o’er both our houses’. Stock markets lost ground as investors came out of positions at the end of H1 and banked profit.
Sterling was pushed lower by the euro as its inflation reading for June was slightly better than expected: flash CPI posted at -0.1% against a consensus of -0.2% as large falls were seen in food and oil prices.
Data today is mainly forward looking and will give a good idea of economic prospects as we progress through Q3. PMIs for the European and UK manufacturing sectors are due at 09.00 and 09.30 BST respectively with growth seen for the UK and stagnation sought for Europe. A similar measure is out for the US at 15.00 while ADP employment change, the precursor to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls announcement, arrives at 13.15.
World First’s Twitter page is up and running and we will be live ‘tweeting’ the impact of all these data releases and how they affect the markets. Click below for up-to-date news on all things currency. The address is http://twitter.com/World_First

How to choose a Forex Broker?

Forex brokers need to be associated with a large financial institution such as a bank in order to provide the funds necessary for margin trading. In the United States a broker should be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as protection against fraud and abusive trade practices.

Before trading Forex you need to set up an account with a Forex broker. You may feel overwhelmed by the number of forex brokers who offer their services online. Deciding on a broker requires lots of research on your part. There are several areas to examine before you sign on the dotted line with any broker. Here are some things that you need to look for in making your choice:

1. Safety of Funds
   Is the broker regulated? Are client funds insured?
   
2. Order execution
   How fast is the broker’s order execution?
   Will they place you on manual execution?
   Do they offer automatic execution?
   How much can you trade before having to request a quote?
   Do they offset all clients orders?
   Do they trade against their clients?
   
3. Spread
   Is it fixed or variable?
   How tight is the spread?
   Is it larger for mini accounts?
4. Slippage
   How much slippage can be expected in normal and fast moving market conditions?
5. Margin requirements
   What are the margin requirements and how are they calculated? Does the margin change with currency traded? Is it the same for mini accounts and standard accounts?
6. Forex Trading Platform
   Is it reliable during fast moving markets and news announcements?
   How many different currency pairs can you trade?
   Do they offer an Application Programming Interface (API) for automated systems trading?
   What other features does it offer? (One click trading from the chart, trailing stops, mobile trading etc.)
7. Account Size
   What is the minimum account balance?
   Can you trade mini accounts?
   Do you earn interest on the unused equity in your account?
   Can you adjust the standard lot size traded?

Odds and Edge Probabilities in Day Trading

The whole concept of odds and probabilities is a subject that most beginner traders avoid, but is absolutely one of every professional trader’s secrets for success. Trading the financial markets is all about managing risk, nothing is 100% accurate or works 100% of the time. There is always a certain chance, certain odds, certain probability that a trade will work or wont work. Even if a trading system generates 99% chance of success, there is still that 1% chance of failure. Nothing in trading is black or white, everything is somewhere in the gray. It is the job of the trader to determine how gray the trade is, what are odds of success. The trader can then adjust their trading based on the probability of the specific trade and the probability of the trading system that he uses. By figuring out exact odds of success, the trader can figure out his edge and maintain it.

Why Odds and Edge?

Anyone that has ever been to Las Vegas can see the money that the casinos spend to lure the gambler into their casino. The casinos make their money, an enormous amount of money, by maintaining their edge. In the collection of all games that a casino runs, they still maintain around 4.5% edge. That means that out of every dollar that is brought in to the casino, 4.5 cents stay there. Some people hit the jack pots, some people lose everything they have, but the casino, on average, makes 4.5%. For the casinos, it is not gambling, it is a game of odds, probabilities and they know their edge. The more gamblers come in, the more money they bring with them, the more the casino makes, as long as they maintain their edge.

In trading, the trader runs their own casino. If a trader wins 80% of the time, makes $200.00 every time he wins and loses $100.00 every time he loses, on average the trader makes $140.00 per trade. As long as the trader maintains his ratios, his edge, he will make, on average, $140.00 every time he executes a trade.

This is a very important statistic for a trader. Being aware of these numbers allows traders to weather draw downs, stick to their system, eliminating hesitation and managing their trading correctly.

Odds and Your System

Every trader wants to make money. Even the best analysis, best system in the world will have losing trades, it is just part of the business, there is no 100% success. After a long testing period, every trader should evaluate their statistics to find their edge. What percentage of trades are profitable? What is the average winning trade? What is the average losing trade? What is the average profit per day?

Testing a trading system is a gradual process, as many factors can affect results. By paper trading for a long period of time, a beginner trader can evaluate their trading system. The next step is trading minimum size positions and testing system results again. Keeping a trading diary and tracking performance as the system develops can establish the system’s edge and odds of success. These numbers will help the trader become a business and not a gambler.

Odds and Your Individual Trades

Every trading system has certain conditions or parameters that are required before a trade is executed. Depending on the structure of the trading system, there can be more parameters or less parameters. The more conditions are true, the higher the odds of a successful trade. It is almost impossible to find a trade that has all conditions aligned, almost all trades are less than perfect.

Knowing the trade’s odds can help a trader evaluate risk and adjust position accordingly. If only 80% of conditions in the trading system exist, the trade has less odds of success than a trade that has 100% of conditions and should be traded differently.

If all trading conditions exist, if all indicators are lined up, the trade has certain odds of success. If not all indicators are lined up correctly, the trade has lower odds of success. Below a certain level of odds, the trade should not be taken.

Thinking in Odds

Most traders have serious problems thinking in odds because it is against our nature to take on a position without being 100% sure that it will be a success. Losing hurts, it is painful, taking a position knowing that there is a chance of loss is usually avoided. Traders want to "know" what is going to happen and therefore look for the black and white in trading. Black and white do not exist in trading.

A trade can be right and still lose. All indicators can be aligned and the trade can still lose. Even if the system is 99% accurate, there is still a chance that the trade will be a loss. Most traders are unable to accept this and it causes frustration. By learning to think in odds, a trader can both vary their trading according to odds of success and accept losing trades a lot easier.

Shay Horowitz has been a successful day trader advisor for over 10 years. Currently he works as an advisor to other traders and has helped hundreds of clients bring in an average 15% profit per trade.

Achieving Trading Perfection

Achieving Trading Perfection - Trade quality, not quantity. Take the best of the best. Get the big picture. If you haven’t previously come across such advice, or if you have and are not following it, it is time that you take these words to heart. But how?

Trade selection and adequate planning go hand in hand. This is where most would-be professional traders miss the boat.

Much more money is made as a result of proper planning than from sitting and trading everything that comes along or "looks" good.

It’s difficult to fully understand why people think they have to trade so much. It’s difficult to truly grasp why people think that they have to take as many trades as they do.

Just the opposite is true. There is a correct approach to each and every trade. That is what achieving perfection is all about.

It all starts with proper management: planning, organizing, delegating, directing, and controlling.

These facets of management must be woven together into your trading; they do overlap.

Although planning is the major management function involved in achieving perfection, you can’t possibly plan well unless you are organized to do so.

You must have your tools at hand: your trading software, your data, the proper equipment. All of the rudiments for planning must be in place, which in itself is a part of organizing.

You must be physically fit when you plan: well nourished, properly exercised, well rested and mentally alert - all part of having your life organized, all part of achieving perfection as a trader.

To be a winning trader, you have to be among the best. There can be no middle ground. There are only winners and losers, and to be a winner you have to be a champion. And, just like any champion, you must have discipline, self-control, and a willingness to train, train, train.

There are no runners-up in trading, you either get the gold or you give the gold. Often, while others are busy going to parties or watching sports events, you are busy poring over charts, studying, thinking, planning. When others are listening to music or watching TV, you are busy practicing your trading, practicing trade selection, working hard to become a more astute trader.

Part of achieving perfection involves the diligent study of charts. The data, as presented on your screen and preserved as charts, are, for the most part, all you have for making trading decisions. They are a picture, a visualization of what is taking place in the reality of the market. Your job in achieving perfection and becoming an adequate trader is to picture and imagine in your mind what makes prices move and form the way they do. Ask yourself, "How does what I see in front of me relate to the supply and demand for the underlying?" Ask yourself, "Is what I am seeing on the chart even related to supply and demand, or is what I am seeing related to an engineered move by some insider or market mover?"

Supply and demand are not what makes prices move or fail to move most of the time. The sooner you realize that fact, the better off you will be. Markets are engineered, manipulated ¾ you need to know that.

But there’s more to a chart than merely price patterns. Reflected in the chart are the emotional reactions of human beings. Reactions to rumors and news; to national and world events; to government reports - these, too, are on the charts.

You might say that price movement, or the lack thereof, is the net effect of all the perceptions of all the traders who are participating in the market for a particular futures.

There is something else on the charts, something that too few take into account. That something is the manipulations from and by the insiders, the market movers, and by commercials holding large inventories of the underlying you are attempting to trade.

In achieving perfection as a trader, you must train yourself to look for evidence of any and all of these things as you study your charts. It is the cumulative action of all perceptions which causes patterns to form on a price chart.

You must learn to look for the truths in the markets. There are certain truths which are self-evident; they are always true. For instance, take the phenomenon of a breakout. When prices break out, no one can change the fact that they did break out. It is a fact and it is true. The breakout may turn out to be a "false" breakout, but nevertheless it is a breakout. As part of achieving perfection in your trade selection skills, you have to learn to tell which breakouts are most likely true breakouts, and which ones are most likely false. How can you know? By the price patterns on the chart.

And what about trend? Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to master how to trade a trend. A trend is a trend, is a trend. It is a trend until the end, and part of your job is to know when a market is not trending.

The trend is the trend while it lasts. While a market is trending it is telling the truth. The trend can change, but the truth is the truth. If prices are rising, the trend is up. If prices are falling, the trend is down. The truth can be found in the trend. It is an immutable fact. You are to learn to make my money by trading with the trend. You are to learn what constitutes a trend. You have to learn to spot trends early so that you can make the most out of the market while it is trending. Your job in achieving perfection as a trader is to learn to recognize when a trend will most likely begin, and just as important, to learn to be even more adept at deciphering when a trend is ending.

In achieving perfection, you must learn to recognize "your" trade(s), and to take only "your" trades. Trade the formations and patterns that you can easily recognize and identify.

You must learn to trade using tips and tricks that you are shown and to accumulate and keep a collection of techniques that result in the selection of high probability trades.

How are you to do all this? Practice, practice, PRACTICE. Practice recognition of congestion areas. Practice recognition of high probability breakouts. Practice trend recognition. Practice and more practice. Just like anyone who wants to achieve perfection at anything, there must be total dedication, study, practice and more practice. You are to become a trading virtuoso. You are to practice, yet always realizing that you will never attain true perfection, that there is always room for improvement. There is usually a way to refine: ways that you can do things better, more efficiently, and with greater speed and finesse.

Trading in Partnership

Trading together with a friend can have its advantages. If one of you has more experience and the other more money, you can help your friend through your experience and he can help with margins. Together, you can trade larger size and perhaps make more profits. However, unless you both agree to the same line of action and what the possible contingencies might be, it is essential that you decide which of you is to execute the trades. It is more difficult reaching trading decisions together than on your own.

If you haven’t decided on the contingency measures in advance you’ll find yourself arguing and disagreeing in the middle of a trade going against you when timely action is of the essence. It can be quite disheartening and dangerous.

If you are not absolutely sure about your partner, and you don’t agree with the way he trades, you are better off trading on your own.

Take for example an instance where the order placed was ambiguous and the broker executed it twice. The traders accepted the mistake and then the market moved against them. The partner with the greater margins but less experience was in charge of execution. He placed the order before the market opened to roll the position out. The market moved against him, he covered the position at three times the premium received and then the market corrected. He was unable to get the other side because he couldn’t watch intraday.

Trading is a business! You must be totally prepared in terms of having a business plan, knowing how to place orders, and being on top of them from beginning to end. Even then things can go wrong, but being unprepared can lead to disaster. The smallest details must be thought of and prepared in advance, but mistakes and oversights still happen.

I came across an interesting concept. The path to enlightenment involves conquering five human weaknesses: greed, fear, ignorance, pride and jealousy. We should be all familiar with the first two, which cause much grief to traders, but the last three can be a big problems, too, so it’s worth pondering on them. Human weaknesses always show up to undermine one’s trading.

Greed makes people stay in a trade too long, or trade too big a size. Fear makes one get out of winning trades too early. Ignorance makes people commit innumerable mistakes. Pride doesn’t allow one to admit one is wrong and often, small losses are allowed to turn into huge losses because one doesn’t want to accept one is wrong. Jealousy can make one trade in a subjective manner.

A detached attitude is a great asset in trading. Trading is war and it is essential that you execute a pre-planned line of action flawlessly and unemotionally. You must be flexible and let things (that are now second nature) take their course. Be like an outside passive observer.

That is why it is so important to be at your best when trading. You must have all possible things on your side.

Forex Software - Choosing the Best

When it comes to forex trading the forex software you choose is essential. There are so many forex trading companies all competing for your business that choosing the right forex software can be quite a difficult task. Most of the forex software products available offers live online forex trading platforms but what other components are vital when it comes to your forex software.

Key Elements For Your Forex Software

Before purchasing any forex software there are a few essential items that should be included. The most important is security and your online forex trading software should include a 128 bit SSL encryption which will prevent hackers from accessing any of your personal details and information such as your account balance, transaction history, etc.

Providing the best security for your forex trading will include a company that provides 24 hour technical server support for your forex software, 24 hour maintenance should anything go wrong, daily backups of all information, and a security system that has been designed to prevent any unauthorized access. Along with these security protocols there are also some forex trading companies that use smart cards and fingerprint scanners to ensure that only their employees can have access to their servers.

Another important factor when it comes to choosing your forex software is to check what the company’s downtime is like. When it comes to trading forex and particularly your online forex trading you need to ensure that the forex software you choose is reliable and available 24 hours a day. The forex software you choose for your forex trading should also have technical support available at all times should your session be cut short.

Ensuring that all the above features are listed in the forex software you choose will help to ensure your forex trading success.